Is what happens to me God's will or my karma?

in most Hindu schools, both — karma is the law, and God is the one who administers it, with grace.

Different schools put it differently. The Mīmāṃsā school held that karma works by itself, like a law of nature, without needing a God to deliver results. Most Vedānta schools disagree: action is unconscious and cannot, by itself, deliver just results, so Īśvara is the karma-phala-dātā, the giver of the fruits of action — a view argued in the Brahma Sūtras (3.2). The Gītā says the Lord dwells in the hearts of all beings (18.61).

So God is not arbitrary; He works through karma, like a just judge applying a law. But devotional traditions add that God is also compassionate: sincere prayer, repentance and surrender can soften the effects of karma, and grace (kṛpā) is real. Advaita adds that from the highest view, the one who suffers and the one who rules are not ultimately separate.

Practically: accept what comes as prasāda, act well now to shape the future, and pray — all three fit together.

Source: Brahma Sūtra 3.2; Bhagavad Gītā 18.61 · Īśvara: karma-phala-dātā

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